Paul Manafort – Page 2 – Opening Arguments

September 20, 2018September 21, 2018

OA211: Manafort Flips (and more on Kavanaugh)

Today’s Rapid Response Friday tackles (1) Paul Manafort’s plea deal and (2) the surprise resumption of the Senate Judiciary confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Associate Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh in light of Dr. Ford’s allegations, which are discussed in depth on Episode 158 of Serious Inquiries Only. What should you look for during Monday’s hearings? Listen and find out!

We begin with an acknowledgment of the story sent to us by several hundred thousand listeners regarding crazy person Cody Wilson.

After that, it’s time for an important Andrew Was Wrong: Paul Manafort did not plea over the weekend; he pled guilty pretty much the second we stopped recording! We break down everything there is to know about his deal, including the strong incentives Manafort has not only to cooperate but to roll over and expose his belly to Mueller’s team in hopes of being thrown a bone or two. Oh, and we time-travel back to the 19th century to answer a super-interesting listener question on asset forfeiture!

Then, it’s time to discuss Kavanaugh again, in light of the troubling accusations made by Dr. Ford and other issues, including the Democratic Senators’s FOIA lawsuit compelling the production of Kavanaugh’s documents that are being withheld while the Republicans try and cram through his nomination. It’s not a pretty segment, but we think you’ll walk away equipped to understand Monday’s hearings.

After all that, we end with an all new Thomas Takes The Bar Exam #94 regarding Congressional delegation of rule-making authority. Will Thomas get back on track with just one extra wrong answer to give in the next six questions? Yu’ll have to listen and find out! And, of course, if you’d like to play along with us, just retweet our episode on Twitter or share it on Facebook along with your guess and the #TTTBE hashtag. We’ll release the answer on next Tuesday’s episode along with our favorite entry!

Appearances

Andrew will be debating originalist (and Kavanaugh clerk!) Justin Reed Wilson in Louisville, Kentucky on September 27; click here for the Facebook RSVP link if you’d like to attend!

Show Notes & Links

For an in-depth analysis of Dr. Ford’s allegations against Kavanaugh, listen to Episode 158 of Serious Inquiries Only.
You should really read through Mr. Ostrich-Jacket’s plea deal for yourself. (And yes, that’s the show graphic.) This is the TPM article Andrew criticizes; as you’ll see from the Sentencing Table, Manafort faces 210-262 (or more) months in prison.
Here’s the polling aggregator from our friends at 538.; as of today, Democrats have a 1-in-3 chance of retaking the Senate.
Click here to read Blumenthal v. US Nat’l Archives, the FOIA complaint filed by the Senate Judiciary Democrats, and here to read the Motion for TRO (which does not yet have an accompanying Memorandum). FOIA is 5 U.S.C. § 552.
Finally, this is the text of the Sanai letter describing Alex Kozinski and seeking an investigation into Kavanaugh’s knowledge and testimony.

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September 17, 2018September 18, 2018

OA210: Cash Bail, Glucksburg and More

Today’s episode takes two deep dives: first, into California SB10, which eliminates the “cash bail” system of pretrial detention in California, and second, into the Supreme Court’s 1997 decision in Washington v. Glucksberg. What does it all mean? You’ll have to listen to know for sure!

We begin, however, with an update on Wells Fargo’s $1 billion remediation plan first discussed in Episode 169.

After that, we tackle California SB10, which is now law — even though it won’t go into effect until October of 2019. Is this a good or a bad thing? Would it change your mind to learn that the ACLU flip-flopped on this bill? Listen and find out!

From there, we move into an in-depth analysis of Glucksburg and what it means for the future of the Supreme Court.

Then, we give you a little retroactive speculation regarding the possiblity that Paul Manafort might plead guilty. Yes, it’s a living record of the fact that we record on Thursdays — but we think you’ll like the analysis anyway.

Finally, we end with Thomas Takes the Bar Exam Question #93 regarding double jeopardy. Remember to follow our Twitter feed (@Openargs) and like our Facebook Page so that you too can play along with #TTTBE!

Recent Appearances

Andrew will be debating originalist (and Kavanaugh clerk!) Justin Reed Wilson in Louisville, Kentucky on September 27 at Impellizzeri’s Pizza; to attend, just RSVP on this Facebook link.

Show Notes & Links

We first discussed Wells Fargo’s fine and remediation requirements in Episode 169; you can check the OCC’s News Releases for yourself to see when the rejection becomes public (if ever). For now, we had to make due with this Reuters article.
You can read California SB10, as well as check out the opposition from both Human Rights Watch and the ACLU.
Here is the full decision in Washington v. Glucksberg, 521 U.S. 702 (1997).
During the Glucksburg segment, we discussed Sen. Coons’s question to Kavanaugh about it, and, of course, Ted Cruz’s “Washington Generals” questions during the confirmation hearings. Also, we referenced earlier written answers from Elena Kagan during her confirmation hearings discussing Glucksburg.
Glucksburg was explicitly distinguished in the Obergefell decision.

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Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/openargs/

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For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki

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September 6, 2018September 7, 2018

OA207: Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Hearings

Today’s Rapid Response Friday tackles the ongoing Supreme Court Confirmation Hearings for Brett Kavanaugh — including an analysis of documents that broke literally after we recorded the show! Find out if any of this can slow down Kavanaugh’s presumed path the SCOTUS.

We begin, however, with listener feedback on our rather controversial Episode 205 (with Andrew Seidel) as well as follow-up emails regarding 3-D guns and our contributions to SwingLeft.

After that, we break down the critical documents leaked today by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) that show 1) Kavanaugh’s nakedly partisan approach to the court; 2) Kavanaugh’s nonexistent view of the value of precedent when it comes to Roe v. Wade; and 3) possible perjury. Is this a big deal? YES. Will it move the needle? We’ll see.

After that, we return to Yodel Mountain to discuss Paul Manafort’s impending DC trial and the somewhat-overlooked plea by W. Samuel Patten. Who’s that? Listen and find out!

Finally, we end with an all new Thomas Takes The Bar Exam #92 regarding impeaching the testimony of a gang member at trial. If you’d like to play along with us, just retweet our episode on Twitter or share it on Facebook along with your guess and the #TTTBE hashtag. We’ll release the answer on next Tuesday’s episode along with our favorite entry!

Recent Appearances

Thomas was recently the guest masochist on this week’s God Awful Movies, reviewing “New World Order.” It’s hilarious — don’t miss it! And if you’d like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com.

Show Notes & Links

Here are the Kavanaugh email and Kavanaugh email 2 documents discussed during the main segment. For more Kavanaugh document fun, check out this comprehensive New York Times article.
This is W. Samuel Patten’s Criminal Information, to which he pled guilty, and here is the Statement of the Offense, which explains the connection to the Trump campaign and White House.
Finally, this is the late-breaking document showing possible perjury.

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Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/openargs/

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For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki

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September 3, 2018September 4, 2018

OA206: Will This ONE WEIRD TRICK Unravel the Mueller Investigation?

Today’s episode takes us back to Yodel Mountain, where we take a look at a popular article making the rounds suggesting that (you guessed it) this ONE WEIRD TRICK might unravel the entire Mueller investigation. Should you be worried? (No.)

We begin, however, with the rare (but delightful!) Thomas Was Right segment revisiting 3-D guns and the Arms Export Control Act. What’s going on? Listen and find out!

In the main segment, we take apart this Politico story suggesting that McKeever v. Sessions hold the key to Yodel Mountain.

After that, we tour what’s left of Yodel Mountain to discuss the latest developments with our buddy Paulie M. Did he really try to plead out in advance of his next trial? What’s next on the horizon for everyone’s favorite ostrich-vest-wearing money launderer?

Then, we end with Thomas (and Andrew!) Take the Bar Exam Question #91 regarding the separation of church and state and graduation prayers. Remember to follow our Twitter feed (@Openargs) and like our Facebook Page so that you too can play along with #TTTBE!

Recent Appearances

None! If you’d like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com.

Show Notes & Links

Here’s the injunction granted in the 3-D guns case.
This is the Politico story regarding McKeever v. Sessions.

Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/law

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/openargs/

Don’t forget the OA Facebook Community!

For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki

And email us at openarguments@gmail.com

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August 23, 2018August 23, 2018

OA203: Paul Manafort Convicted, Michael Cohen Pleads

Today’s extra-long, extra-early Rapid Response episode tackles the two biggest stories in the news right now: Paul Manafort’s conviction, and Michael Cohen’s plea deal. We tell you exactly what these two big stories actually mean.

We begin with Paul Manafort. What did the jury decide? Why did they fail to reach a verdict on 10 counts? What were those counts? How long is Paulie M going to stay in prison and what’s next? And, most importantly: what does this mean for Yodel Mountain? How likely is Paulie M to flip on Donald Trump? We answer all of these questions and more!

After that, we turn to everyone’s favorite weasel, Michael “I Would Take A Bullet For Donald Trump” Cohen, who… has not taken a bullet for Donald Trump but has in fact pled guilty to eight separate crimes. What are they, what does it mean, and what comes next? Listen and find out!

And if all that wasn’t enough, we end with an all new Thomas Takes The Bar Exam #90 involving foreseeability, cross-motions for summary judgment, and tortious conduct. If you’d like to play along, just retweet our episode on Twitter or share it on Facebook along with your guess and the #TTTBE hashtag. We’ll release the answer on next Tuesday’s episode along with our favorite entry!

Recent Appearances

None! If you’d like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com.

Show Notes & Links

You’ll want to start with the Manafort indictment, and you can also read the Manafort verdict. Of the eight guilty counts, Manafort was convicted under 18 U.S.C. § 1344, 26 U.S.C. § 7206(1), and 31 U.S.C. § 5322.
We first discussed the Federal Sentencing Guidelines back in Episode 162; you can check out the full manual (long!) and also the FSG Sentencing table to figure out how long Paulie M is going away.
And don’t forget Manafort still has another trial pending in DC! We gave you a primer on that back in Episode 194, and you can check out the pending indictment in that case.
If Paulie M flips, it will be to take advantage of Rule 35(b) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure.
Of course, we first covered how Stormy Daniels is a Legal Genius back in Episode 154, and then the Karen McDougal story in Episode 158.
Here’s Cohen’s plea deal; here are the conditions of his release; and here’s the article quoting his allocution.
Sneak preview of the bonus episode: here’s the DOJ manual on prosecuting campaign finance violations that proves Alan Dershowitz is lying. Again.

Support us on Patreon at: patreon.com/law

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/openargs/

Don’t forget the OA Facebook Community!

For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki

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August 9, 2018August 13, 2018

OA199: Asbestos??!? (Or: Why Is This Man Smiling?)

Note: the SaneBox url in this episode is incorrect. Please go to https://www.sanebox.com/opening to take advantage of a great deal on their product!

Today’s Rapid Response Friday breaks down everything you need to know regarding the Trump EPA’s recent rules change regarding asbestos. Is it as ominous as it sounds? (Yes.)

We begin, however, with the oddest OA segment of all time: Devin Nunes was right! What was he right about, and what’s a Michael Kinsley gaffe? You’ll just have to listen and find out!

After that, in a bonus segment, the guys break down the recent indictment of Chris Collins (R-NY-27) for insider trading.

The main segment breaks down the EPA’s Significant New Use Rule (SNUR) regarding asbestos and help you evaluate the competing claims being lobbed back and forth. Did the Trump Administration open up the use of asbestos in household products? Or did they make it harder to use asbestos as the EPA claims? We give you a definitive answer.

After that, Andrew partially answers a listener question in light of Rick Gates’s testimony in the Manafort trial while teasing that the rest will get answered sometime soon.

And if that wasn’t enough, we end with an all new Thomas Takes The Bar Exam #88 involving a contract, waiver and modification, and subsequent assignment to another party. Phew! If you’d like to play along, just retweet our episode on Twitter or share it on Facebook along with your guess and the #TTTBE hashtag. We’ll release the answer on next Tuesday’s episode along with our favorite entry!

Recent Appearances

Andrew was recently a guest on The Thinking Atheist podcast with Seth Andrews. If you’d like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com.

Show Notes & Links